Over the past several years, we have spent significant time studying long-range economic forecasts. One research group in particular, ITR Economics, has warned that the 2030s may bring a prolonged economic downturn driven by structural forces: aging demographics, elevated sovereign debt, inflationary pressure, and entitlement spending.
Sure, forecasts are inherently uncertain. Economists can be wrong. We can be wrong. But we believe it is prudent to consider a range of potential long-term outcomes when constructing financial plans — especially when the forces at play are measurable and decades in the making.
Demographics don’t care about politics. Debt math doesn’t care who’s in office. And long-term economic cycles rarely reverse simply because we wish them to. Rather than react emotionally, we are thinking strategically about what the next decade may require.
1. Why This Would Be Different
The risks described for the 2030s are not analogous to COVID or 2008.
COVID was an artificial shutdown of a functioning economy. Governments closed activity, then reopened it. Demand returned. Supply chains restarted. The economy snapped back.
The financial crisis of 2008 was painful, but it stemmed from a contained imbalance—housing leverage layered onto financial engineering. It was severe, but it was not demographic or structural.
What long-cycle researchers are describing would not be triggered by a single event or policy mistake. It would reflect generational math: slowing population growth, fewer workers supporting more retirees, mounting public debt, and structural inflationary pressures. These forces build quietly over decades. If they materialize, they would represent a true economic force—not a temporary interruption.
2. Why We Are Not Running for the Hills
In Genesis, Joseph interpreted a coming famine. But he did not retreat. He did not liquidate and hide. He worked.
During the years of abundance, he harvested aggressively and stored grain. He prepared while prosperity still existed. When the famine came, Egypt did not collapse. It gained strength.
Now, don’t hear me claiming to be a prophet. But we believe the same mindset applies today. Even if long-term risks lie ahead, we may still have years of opportunity before them. Those years are not for fear—they are for discipline, for harvesting gains wisely, and for strengthening balance sheets.
3. How Our Thinking Fits Into This
Our approach centers on identifying areas of the economy positioned to benefit from durable, structural forces rather than temporary cycles.
We focus on themes tied to necessity: infrastructure and energy systems that must be modernized, security—both physical and digital—that remains essential in every environment, healthcare demand driven by demographics, and domestic industrial capacity that supports economic resilience.
These are not short-term trades. They are expressions of long-term economic reality. We evaluate long-term structural trends and assess how they may influence various sectors of the economy, recognizing that outcomes may differ from expectations.
4. Other Ways of Playing Defense
Investment positioning is only one form of preparation.
Defense also includes maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt prudently, diversifying sources of income, avoiding overconcentration, and reviewing estate and tax planning structures. Resilience is multi-dimensional. It is not just about portfolio allocation.
5. Being Ready to Buy Again
One lesson from COVID stands out clearly: moments of fear create opportunity.
In March of 2020, markets fell sharply. Many investors froze. Some sold. Those who had liquidity and discipline were able to buy strong assets at discounted prices.
If the 2030s bring stress, the pattern could repeat. Market downturns have historically created both challenges and opportunities. While no future period will mirror the past exactly, maintaining liquidity and discipline can help investors respond thoughtfully during periods of volatility. The objective is not merely to survive a downturn. It is to be positioned to act when others might not.
Preparation today is not about bracing for catastrophe. It is about building strength—so that when volatility arrives, we are ready to move forward decisively. The next decade may present challenges. It will also present opportunity. We intend to be ready for both by building resilient financial strategies designed to navigate a variety of market environments over time.
Keating Financial Advisory Services (KFAS) is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. There is no guarantee that any strategy discussed will be successful. Advisory services are offered only pursuant to a written agreement.