I don’t claim to be a military strategist, but like many of you, I do pay attention to history. There are a few glaring deficiencies that I see in the current strategy on Iran.
The first is allowing Iranian oil to flow freely out of the Strait of Hormuz, and for tankers to flow freely back to Iran. The Wall Street Journal reported March 11th that Iran is exporting more oil than it was before. Based on what has happened with the rest of the supply chain, they’re getting paid more for it too. This seems to be counterproductive if you’re trying to choke off the power and funding of a regime you hope to overthrow.
And as my economics professors would say, this error has “spillover costs”. One of the main threats that Iran has still at their disposal is the threat of ballistic missiles and Shahed drones. In theory, the US and Israel should be depleting their supply and doing severe damage to their ability to launch. But it’s quite probable that these oil tankers can and will be used to transport vital materials for replenishing missile and drone stockpiles, if this is not happening already.
Another major error is to do just enough bombing to assassinate the leader but not so much as to prevent his son from taking power, with a massive grudge that he’s not likely to soon forget. History is replete with examples of dictators and authoritarians who were bullied just enough to push them to heinous acts years later.
I understand the unusual opportunity the Iranian government presented to the United States and Israel by placing their senior leadership in such a vulnerable position to attack. But we have clearly not learned the lessons from any of the military conflicts that have gone on during my lifetime under US presidents: namely, never start a fight you do not know how to finish. And as every day goes by, it becomes more difficult for this administration to finish it.
All this to say, we’re not likely to see real resolution to this war anytime soon, and any ceasefires between the United States and Iran are not likely to outlive the bitterness and the resolve of the bereaved son who is now in power.
Of course, I could be wrong in many respects, and for the sake of peace, I hope I am.
This commentary reflects the personal views of the author on geopolitical developments and is provided for general informational purposes only. It should not be interpreted as investment advice or a recommendation regarding any investment strategy or security. Geopolitical events are inherently uncertain and may evolve rapidly.
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