Over the past several years, we’ve followed the research from ITR Economics — one of the most respected economic forecasting firms in the country. Their long-term models, which focus on demographics, debt cycles, and productivity trends, point toward a prolonged economic contraction in the 2030s. Some have used the phrase “Great Depression 2.0” to describe the kind of slowdown these models anticipate. It’s a dramatic label — and not one we use lightly — but it reflects the seriousness of the trends we’re watching.
That phrase can sound dramatic. Like ITR, we don’t use it to be alarming. We use it to be honest about the terrain ahead.
According to ITR, we may be in the latter half of a long period of expansion, with more difficult terrain ahead. That’s not a prediction — it’s a scenario we’re planning for, because good planning considers multiple outcomes. At the same time, the Social Security Trustees project that the Social Security Trust Fund will be depleted around 2033, at which point benefits would need to be reduced or restructured unless changes are made.
Here’s Why We Are Sharing This Now:
Not because something bad is imminent.
Not because we should rush into drastic changes.
But because wise planning happens early.
We are reminded of the story in Genesis where Joseph interprets Pharaoh’s dream: years of abundance followed by years of scarcity. The point of that story isn’t fear. It’s preparation.
Here’s What This Means For You:
We are planning with the assumption that future dollars may not go as far as today’s dollars.
If adjustments are made to Social Security, they may take the form of higher taxes or additional government spending — both of which could put pressure on the purchasing power of future dollars.
That’s not a certainty, but it’s a possibility we think is worth preparing for.
So, we continue to focus on:
- Diversification beyond a single economic outcome
- Tax-aware strategies
- Liquidity planning
- Business and personal planning that stays flexible
Most Importantly, We Are Not Setting A Plan And Walking Away. We Are Building Plans Designed To Evolve.
You don’t need to predict the future perfectly. You need a framework that can adapt as the future unfolds.
That’s the role we aim to play — helping you navigate uncertainty with thoughtfulness, perspective, and experience.
Imagine you’re driving through a major city, and your navigation app indicates there’s a traffic jam ahead. You don’t yet know the full picture — how bad it is, what caused it, or whether you’ll need to exit or wait it out.
But what you do know is that you’re an experienced driver.
You know how to adjust your speed.
You know when not to pass a semi that’s turning.
You know how to steer in a skid, how to maintain following distance, and how to adapt to different road conditions.
Whether it’s snow or rain or stop-and-go congestion, what matters most isn’t predicting the shape of the slowdown. What matters is your ability to navigate it.
That’s How We See Our Role In Your Financial Life.
We’ve driven through bear markets. We’ve managed through uncertainty. Tools change. Strategies evolve. But wisdom is timeless.
Like any good navigator, we can’t promise a smooth ride, but we’re committed to helping you stay oriented, steady, and flexible — no matter what lies ahead.
If you’d like to talk more about how this shows up in your plan, we’re here for you.
Any economic forecasts referenced herein, including those from ITR Economics, are subject to uncertainty and are not guarantees of future outcomes. Financial planning involves evaluating a range of possible scenarios. Investment advisory services are offered exclusively through Keating Financial Advisory Services (KFAS), a registered investment advisor. Services are provided pursuant to a written agreement and the firm’s Form ADV Part 2A.